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Greene’s stuff says ace, but his pitch count does him in
No one has ever doubted Hunter Greene’s stuff. He came out Monday throwing 100-plus in every fastball. His slider was nasty.
But Greene is also only 23 years old, and Monday was just his 25th big league start. So he still has a lot to learn. Monday’s 5-4 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates before a regular-season record crowd of 44,063 was a learning experience.
“Today’s a tough day,” Greene said. “We talked from the beginning of spring training leading to today. At the end of the day, it’s one of 162. It’s a very long season. I would have loved to get the first one today. It’s all we talked. All the hard work is going to lead into the rest of the season.”
The critical at-bat of the game came against fellow phenom Oneil Cruz in the third inning. Greene got head ahead 0-2. He was then flagged for a pitch-timer violation.
“Tyler and I were going back and forth on signs. We didn’t get to it quick enough,” Greene said.
The count went to 3-2 before Cruz crushed a home run to right field. Greene said the violation and a borderline call on a Ball 2 did not rattle him.
“I felt like I was locked in the whole at-bat,” Greene said. “There were just a couple of pitches that got away from me. Overall, I was very present.”
Still, he ended up throwing 37 pitches in the inning.
That would come into play in the fourth. Ji Hwan Bae doubled with one out. Greene then lost the ninth hitter, Austin Hedges, to a walk.
Reds manager David Bell immediately brought in Fernando Cruz to face Oneil Cruz.
“If (Greene) would have gotten Hedges, he would have pitched to Cruz,” Bell said. “But 83 pitches in 3 1/3 innings is a lot.”
Greene said fatigue was not a factor.
“I felt great from the first pitch to the last,” he said. “I think anyone who’s performing at this level wants to go as long as they can, especially a starting pitcher. I felt great. I could have gone on. But DB wanted to bring on Cruz. He has a. lot of trust in him so does the rest of the team.”
In retrospect, Greene probably should have gotten another batter or two.
Cruz walked the first three batters he faced. The third walk forced in a run. Another scored on a wild pitch, and the Reds were down 4-1.
They fought back to make a game of it, but they ended a loss. For this Reds team to exceed expectations, they’re going to need more than 3 1/3 innings from Greene. His eight strikeouts were impressive. The three walks and five hits — not so much.
Greene said without really saying that he thought home plate ump Mark Wegner was squeezing him.
“I thought it wasn’t on my end on a couple (of the walks,” he said..” It is what it is. It’s part of the game. Looking at the positives. I threw some really good pitches. It didn’t go my way.”
Greene’s stuff is such that he’s going to be dominant.
“His stuff is unbelievable,” Spencer Steer said. “He’s our ace. When he’s pitching, We’ve got a really good chance to win.”
Again, Monday was a lot for a young pitcher. It was Greene’s first Opening Day start.
“A lot of adrenaline,” he said. “There were times when I was too jumpy. There were a lot of times with that adrenaline that I came out on top.”
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Castellini should apologize as first step to win fans back
Based on my walk through downtown and The Banks, Cincinnati still loves baseball and drinking beer — not necessarily in that order. It looked like a perfectly normal Opening Day.
Folks were enjoying the sunshine and talking Reds. The sidewalks along the parade route were packed. (Personal note: It’s the first time I’ve witnessed the parade. I was always already at the ballpark chronicling the last few player moves while the parade marched on).
Last year, of course, was anything but a normal Opening Day. Phil Castellini gave his infamous “Where you going to go?” quote on WLW show that morning, then doubled down with WLWT. It lit a social media fire that the Reds never really were able to put out.
t didn’t help that they lost 21 of the next 22 games. Call it the Phil Curse.
The question for 2023: Will the fans forgive the ownership? I’m guessing not. But I think this team — full of young players — can win over the fans.
That will take a decent start to the season.
Is that possible? Surre. The thing I like best about this team is the three young pitchers anchoring the rotation. If Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft can be above average, it will go a long way to having the pitching staff fall into place.
Bullpens are better when they only have to cover two or three innings a night. The lineup isn’t going to scare many pitchers. But I think you Jonathan India, Tyler Stephenson and Wil Myers will hit. And they should get Joeyt Votto back in eight days or so.
The offense’s success will ultimately relie on TJ Frield, Spencer Steer, Will Benson and Jose Barrero. Unproven, unproven, unproven and unproven.
But that’s what happens when you’re rebuilding with young (read cheap) players.
As for ownership, the only thing that will get them back in the good graces is winning — going from 62 wins like last year to, say, 74 or 75. That won’t be easy,
As for Phil Castellini, I think it would have served him well to tape an apology and play it on the big board before the first pitch: Something along the lines of:
“I said some foolish things on Opening Day last year and Rosie Reds this offseason. For that, I am truly sorry. We love our fans. We’ve stuck with our plan to rebuild with young players. We think we’re going to reap the rewards that soon. I hope you can move past my words and embrace this team. Thanks for filling up the ballpark today.”
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Reds season is one iffy proposition
I spent a week at Reds camp, which isn’t enough time to jump to the conclusion I’m about to.
The question I’ll try to answer: Will they meet or exceed expectations? Now, let’s define those expectations. The Hard Rock Casino has the win total at 65.5. And fangraphs.com’s ZIP predictions has them going 70-92.
Not a high bar in either case. But this team went 62-100 last year, and they shed three of their best players — Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle and Brandon Drury — at the trade deadline. They then traded Kyle Farmer in the offseason.
So you could argue that they go into this season with a weaker roster than most of last year.
But I think they could win 70 or so games if many things go right. It’s a long “if” list, but when you’re in the position general manager Nick Krall is, i.e., deal in with a payroll that’s $50 million less than it was in 2021, that’s how it’s going to be.
So here’s my if list:
–If Hunter Geene and Nick Lodolo continue to develop into front-of-the-rotation starters and pitch the way they did in the ladder part of last season. Both have had good camps. Reds manager David Bell was asked what the ideal season would be for Greene.
“I hesitate to put any sort of limit on it or prediction,” Bell said. “The one thing we do know is no matter how good you are, it is always difficult. It’s a long season. There are going to be ups and downs, even for the absolute best season you could have. I know that, but beyond that, I’d hate to put any sort of limit on him.
Ditto for Lodolo.
“Very similar to what (I) said about Hunter earlier,” Bell said. “He just handles everything great. He’s a different look (than Greene). His pitches are continuing to get better, but I think what stands out the most is just who he is. We’re just really lucky to have young pitchers that are mature, they handle things well. They’re also really interested in our team and do things that make our team better. So to have young players that can grow with that. It’s really nice.”
Greene put up a 1.02 ERA over his last six starts of the season. Lodolo was 3-5 with a 3.35 ERA over his last 16 starts.
Two potential aces at the top of the rotation make building the pitching staff around them much easier.
–If Joey Votto and Nick Senzel do not miss extended time at the start of the season. Neither has played in spring games after offseason surgery. Mid-March is the best guess as to when Votto (shoulder) and Senzel (toe) will play.
Votto is 39 years old and coming off his worst year; Senzel has not been able to stay healthy. So it’s easy to overlook their importance. But they are significantly better than the players who will get at-bats in the their absence.
–If someone can emerge as this year’s Brandon Drury. Through trades and cheap free-agent signings, the Reds have a lot of players in camp who will get opportunities. Chad Pinder, Nick Solak and Kevin Newman head the list. If one of them can do what Drury did and take a big step, it will help immensely.
In my limited time in camp, two players impressed me were outfielder Will Benson and corner infielder Christian Encarnacion-Strand.
Benson, obtained in a trade with Cleveland, slashed .278/.426/.522 in 316 at-bats at Triple-A last year. He’s a big guy (6-foot-5, 225 pounds) who can run (16 steals at Triple-A last year). Benson, 24, was the 14th pick overall.
Encarnacion-Strand, one of the three players in the Tyler Mahle trade with Minnesota, slashed .317/.376/.588 in 591 ABs in the minors. He’s only 23. He’s athletic for his size (6-1, 229 pounds).
–If Alexis Diaz can be an effective closer. His numbers last year — 7-3, 1.84 ERA, 10 saves, 83 strikeouts, 33 walks in 63 2/3 innings — were impressive. But he still falls under the small-sample-size umbrella.
–If the Reds can avoid an April disaster like last year. The 3-22 start doomed the season. A good start is paramount. Not a great start. But if they can get through April in the same area code at .500, it will do wonders.
This is a young team that needs to build confidence. Winning does that.
–If one of the young prospects can step up and turn that potential into production. There are a lot of candidates — Elly De La Cruz, Jose Barrero, Noelvi Marte, Encarnacion-Stand and Spencer Steer.
Cruz and Marte have particularly high ceilings. They will likely start in the minors, but the Redsd should not be afraid to promote them if they hit at Double-A or Triple-A.
–If Tyler Stephenson gets 500 at-bats. Stephenson looked great last year, but he could not stay healthy. The injuries were freak things — broken hand and collar bone resulting from pitches hitting him while catching.
The Reds plan to mitigate the chances of that by using Stephenson as first base and designated hitter. But he’s a key player for his bat and leadership.
There are probably a dozen more ifs that you can list. Again, the bar is low. I don’t think anyone expects the Reds to contend. But they must take a significant step forward to show the fans that the rebuild is progressing. Winning 71, 72 games would show that.
That could happen if . . .
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Votto more confident in the 2023 Reds than Phil Castellini
GOODYEAR, Ariz. — When I was interviewing Joey Votto the Sunday, he mentioned that this was his 17th big league camp. That gave him the confidence to sing Selena’s “Bidi Bidi Bom Bom” at”Reds Got Talent.”
“Beautiful song,” he said. “It was quite the ballad.”
The 23-year-old Joey Votto would probably not have risked the humiliation in front of his teammates. The 39-year-old Joey Vottlo is much more at ease in the clubhouse.
But one thing has not changed: Then and now, Votto chooses his words carefully. I was among the beat writers who approached him in the clubhouse at tired, old Ed Smith Stadium in 2007. Votto was coming off his breakout year at Double-A Chattanooga.
“I’ve been thinking about what I would say when you guys came over,” he said.
His comments, as I remember, were deliberate and politically correct. When I approached him Sunday, he hadn’t rehearsed what he said, but with 17 years of practice, he knows how to avoid breaking Twitter without rehearsing.
So when I asked if he paid attention to Phil Castellnini’s comments to Rosie Reds about being eliminated before Opening Day, he said:
“No. It’s important for us as a team, as a group players, to focus exclusively on No. 1, what we can control, and our future. It’s important for the players to realize we have to be responsible for ourselves whether we have immense support in the community on otherwise.”
“Ultimately, we must take advantage of a 2023 opportunity and make the most of it. I’ve said this once, and I’ll say it a thousand times, every team goes into the season with an eye on a champion. It’s up to them to seal their fate one way on another.”
Every prognosticator who’s ever dialed fangraphs.com would put the Reds among the teams that Castellini has being eliminated before a pitch is thrown in the regular season.
Votto says that has not and will not affect what goes on in the clubhouse this season.
“All that matters if affects action, if it affects motivation,” he said. “I genuinely don’t think anyone is paying attention. We don’t talk about it. We work towards getting better as a group, we work towards getting wins anytime we have an opportunity to, and we work towards being a strong unit and to build a collective.
“As far outside takes and predictions, I don’t see a lot of guys paying mind to it.”
For the Reds to exceed expectations, the Reds are going to need Vottp to be healthy and productive — not MVP productive, but better than the last
year.Votto had season-ending surgery Aug. 19 to repair a torn left rotator cuff and biceps. Votto never used it as an excuse, but his on-base plus slugging drooped from .928 to .689 from 2021 to ’22.
He’s doing everything as far as baseball activity. But manager David Bell said Votto would determine when he’ll play in games.
“I’m only as good as my health,” he said. “I’m working every day to improve my health and get stronger, so I can perform on a daily basis.
This has been a long process — six-plus months now — and making good progress.“But I don’t want to cut it short if I don’t feel like I can help the team. I’m moving towards health. I’m out here every day taking care of the physical side, the skill side, so there isn’t that much of a process when I start playing games and taking at-bats, inning on defense.
“But I don’t feel I’m ready to play games yet.”
Votto is in the last year of his contract. The Reds have a $20 million option with a $7 million buyout. It would take an extraordinary turn of events for the Reds to pick up that option.
Again, Votto goes with the one-day-at-time answer.
“My eyes are set on health and performing well,” he said. “Last year left a sour taste in my mouth. And I think as a team, our performance collectively left a sour taste in everyone’s mouth — the fan base, the coaching staff, the players.
“We, as a group, have to do better. I’m one small piece of that group. As far as the future, I’m going to try my very best to enjoy this year and play well and ideally be part of a very, very successful Reds team.”
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So far, so quick with rule changes: Reds win in 2:24
GOODYEAR, Ariz. — Thanks to Matt McLain’s walk-off home run with one out in the ninth, the Reds won the spring opener, 4-3, over the Cleveland Indians in a crisp 2 hours and 23 minutes.
One game isn’t small-sample size; it’s tiny-sample size. But for at least one day, Major League Baseball’s new rule accomplished the main goal: A quicker pace of play.
Reds manager David Bell noticed.
“It was hard not to,’ he said. “It had a different feel to it. The overall pace was quicker. It was nice. It wasn’t rushed.”
A 2-hour, 23-minute game was a rarity before the changes. The Reds played a total of three games last year that were quicker. The average time of an MLB game was 3:03 minutes.
There were two “Pitch Timer” violations for the Reds. Jose Barrero failed to get in the batter’s box quickly enough, costing him Strike 1,, and pitcher Daniel Norris failed to deliver a pitch in the allotted 20 seconds with a runner on base, costing him a ball.
“It’s good to have a lot of that happen early, so we can see what it’s like,” Bell said. “Little things.”
The Pitct Timer is the most significant rule change. Pitchers have 15 seconds to deliver a pitch with the bases empty; 20 with runners on. Hitters must be engaged with eight seconds left on the clock.
The other changes: Shift Restrictions mandate that two infielders be on either side of second base, and all four infielders must have their feet on the dirt; the bases are now 18 inches square, up from 15.
The Reds stole three bases — one by Jonathan India and two by Will Benson. The steals led to two runs. On the other side, Luke Maile three out both of the runners who attempted to steal off him.
The rules were tested in the minor league in 2021, resulting in games being an average of 25 minutes shorter. Batting averages were up, and strikeouts and walks decreased.
Reds lefthander Brandon Williamson, who started the game Saturday, spent all of last year in minors, so he was used to the rules.
“I thought it was much better today,” he said. “I didn’t feel rushed at all. At Triple-A, there were plenty of times where I thought the clock, for whatever reason, started too early or too late. Today, I thought it was consistent. I hope it’s like that for the rest of the year.”
Williamson consistently delivered pitches with five seconds on the clock,
“When there was a guy on, I would come set, and I would kind of peek at it out of the corner (at the clock) of my the corner of my eye, ” Williamson said. “I did that at Triple-A, too. I felt like I had more time here. I don’t know for whatever reason, whether it was Pitch Com or what, (but) I came set, I felt like I didn’t have to deliver this right away, I had a second to gather.”
McLain, the Reds’ first pick in the 2021 draft, has been overshadowed by fellow shortstop and No. 1 prospect Elly De La Cruz during camp. But McLain was a two-time All-American at UCLA. He’s the Reds’ No. 12 prospect on Baseball America.
This is his second big league camp.
“I’m still learning on the run,” McLain said. “I’m better prepared this year.”
His home run was a bomb off the scoreboard in left. He hit 17 in 371 at-bats last year at Double-A.
“The wind helped me today,” he admitted. “Look at the flags.”
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Core 6 will be key to Reds’ success . . . or lack thereof
GOODYEAR, Ariz. — The Reds are counting on their young core to get them back to contention.
But how little that core has proven at the big league level is scary. That core includes Jonathan India, Tyler Stephenson, Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft and Alexis Diaz.
Stephenson, with two years and 56 days in the big leagues, is the veteran of that group. India has two years in the bigs. The other four each have a year.
The season rests on those six players’ success or lack thereof. The Reds still have Joey Votto. They added veterans Wil Myers, Curt Casali and Kevin Newman. Nick Senzel enters another season with the “if healthy” tag hanging over him.
And they have a long list of prospects.
But, again, the Core Six has to produce for the team to avoid another disaster of a season like 2022. To say expectations are low is an understatement.
“It’s hard to say where we’re at,” India said. “We have a lot of young guys. We have a lot of good prospects. We’re excited to see how it plays out and see how it goes. We’ll see. We’re a motivated unit, a motivated core. That’s what we have going to for us.”
Stephenson and India both battled injuries last year. India was limited to 103 games after playing 150 as a rookie. He won Rookie of the Year in 2021, hitting .269/.376/.459 with 21 home runs and 69 RBI. He slipped to .249/.327/.378 with 10 home runs and 41 RBI.
Stephenson, 26, was limited to 50 games last year by a concussion, a broken hand and a broken collar bone. He still hit .319/.372/.482. The Reds have committed to playing him at first base and designated hitter at times to keep his bat in the lineup.
Greene, 22, overall numbers weren’t great — 5-13, 4.44 ERA. But once he got over some shoulder problems and began to figure it out, he was terrific. He had a 1.02 ERA over his last six starts.
Lodolo, 25, went 4-7 with a 3.66 ERA.
Ashcraft, 25, went 5-6 with a 4.89 ERA.
Diaz, 26, won the closer job. He put up a 7-3 record with a 1.89 ERA and 10 saves.
That’s a pretty good core of six players, 26 or under. They need to produce, and the Reds need to get a lot out of the prospects they’ve developed and collected in the fire sale that was 2022 season.
No. 1 prospect Elly De La Cruz, the 6-foot-5m, five-tool shortstop, has been the talk of camp. He’s No. 8 overall on Baseball American’s list.
Former shortstop and current third baseman Noelvi Marte is 63rd on BA’s list. Shortstop Edwin Arroyo is 65th on BA’s list. Both were obtained in the deal that sent Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez to Seattle.
But prospects don’t always produce — at least right away.
Consider shortstop Jose Barrera, 24. He was the Reds’ No. 1 and 33rd on BA’s list going into last season.
He ended up hitting .152 in 165 at-bats for the Reds.
The Reds sat him down, reworked his swing and sent him to Puerto Rico for Winter Ball.
“I really do believe he’s on the timing of lot young players,” Reds manager David Bell said. “We get impatient. That’s all normal. If you look at the big picture, he’s young. He’s gone through the things you need to go through. He understands. We all understand that there comes a time when you have to click. But, at this point, he’s on track as far as I’m concerned.”
That’s the situation the Reds are in. They have to hope some of these prospects can do what Stephenson, India, Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft and Diaz did — find some success in the big leagues.
India was asked if he feels like a veteran in a clubhouse full of young players.
“It’s weird to say that,” he said. “I’m only going into my third year, so it’s hard to say I’m a veteran. I don’t look at it that way. I have a new role this year — lead by example.
“I try to create a unit on this team and lead by example. I know we have good young players, prospects that we’re excited about. They’re like every other player. They have a chance to make the team.”
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Is long COVID what’s ailing the Reds?
GOODYEAR, Ariz. — I’m not a doctor, nor have I played one on TV.
But I’m pretty confident in this diagnosis: The Reds are suffering from long COVID.COVID is defined as “a condition that is marked by the presence of symptoms (such as fatigue, cough, shortness of breath, headache, or brain fog) which persist for an extended period of time (such as weeks or months) following a person’s initial recovery from COVID-19 infection.”
In the Reds’ case, the aftereffects of COVID have lingered for years and left them with a roster that no one expects them to compete, much less contend, with. Avoiding a second straight 100-loss season seems like a reasonable goal.
Now let me explain how COVID led to this. That does not absolve the team from blame. COVID affected every time pretty equally, i.e., everyone took a huge hit financially. But the way the Reds reacted to the hit is why things look so bleak for this season.
Let’s go back to the old days when no one knew what COVID was, much less the effect it would have on every facet of life. That was before the 2020 season. The Reds took their deepest drive ever into free agency, spending $164 million to sign Nick Castellanos, Mike Moustakas, Shogo Akiyama and Wade Miley.
They were in the win-now mode.
Then COVID hit. Delaying the season until July and then playing the truncated season without fans.
So in one year, their attendance dropped from 1,809,075 to 0. The Reds, as a private company, do not open their books to the public. But you can be certain they lost roughly $50 million in 2020.
That was despite putting up a winning record and making the playoffs for the first time since 2013. But rather than build on the ’20 season and add a few pieces, the Reds shed payroll to balance the books. They traded Raisel Iglesias in a salary dump, saving $10 million. The non-tendered Archie Bradley, saving another $6 million.
The team finished 83-79 in 2021 and was in contention until September. With Iglesias and Bradley on the roster, it could be argued that Reds could have made the postseason.
Again, the season was a loser financially.
That’s when the payroll slashing started in earnest. The Reds traded Sonny Gray, Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez, Amir Garrett and Tucker Barnhart. They let Miley walk.
COO Phil Castellini inserted his foot in his mouth on Opening Day with his “Well, where you going to go?” Comment. The team lost 20 of 21 games after Castellini spoke. He apologized. But the season was played through a mixture of fan apathy and anger.
The fire sale raged on through the season. Luis Castillo, Brandon Drury, Tyler Mahle and Tommy Pham were jettisoned.
The Reds drew 1,395,770 — the lowest for a full season since 1984 when the club was still dealing with the aftermath of the 1982 102-loss season.
So hope isn’t exactly springing eternal in good, old Goodyear.
My first impression upon arriving at Reds spring training: A lot of new faces. Lots and lots.
Of the 66 players in camp, I recognized maybe a dozen.
That’s to be expected when you’re in the early stages of a rebuild and when you jettison every player making MLB’s minimum wage. The Reds have trimmed $50 million from the payroll over the two years.
Money doesn’t buy championships in baseball, but when you slash the payroll deeply as the Reds have, it makes competing nearly impossible. Castellini told a gathering of the Rosie Reds in November that an average of 14 teams were out of contention before Opening Day over the last three years.
The Reds obviously fall into that category this year.
When will a spring start with hope again in Redsland? Hard to say. But the three most interesting players in camp are Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Elly De La Cruz.
If they can turn into stars, if Tyler Stephenson and Jonathan India continue to progress, and if one or two or three of the players obtained all those trades, maybe then the long nightmare with long COVID will end.
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Arroyo got to the Reds Hall of Fame honestly
Congratulations to Bronson Arroyo on his election to the Reds Hall of Fame. Richly deserved.
Arroyo was a huge part of the turnaround that led to the Reds’ good run from 2011 to 2013. Arroyo for Wily Mo Peña rates as one of the most lopsided trades in Reds history. Arroyo went 108-110 with a 4.18 ERA with the Reds.
In his first stint, he pitched 200 innings or more seven times in eight seasons. The other year? He pitched 199.
But to those who covered Arroyo on a daily basis, as I did for his entire tenure as Red, he was so much more than just a good pitcher.
He was cerebral.
He was always available.
He was funny.
He was everyone’s favorite player to cover.
And he was brutally honest.
In 2018, the New York Times reported David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez were among the 104 players whose names were on a list of players who used performance-enhancing drugs in 2004. Arroyo was a teammate of Ortiz and Ramirez with the Red Sox in ’04.
We gathered around Arroyo to ask about it. He was always good at addressing big MLB issues. As we were finishing up, Joe Kay, of the Associated Press, asked Arroyo if he ever took amphetamines.
Of the 750 players in the majors at the time, 749 would have denied using them or given a no comment.
Not Arroyo.
“Pitching against the Yankees in a noon game, hell yes, I took some Greenies,” Arroyo said.
Something else Arroyo said that day always stuck with me. Paraphrasing here, but he said you only knew your teammates to a degree. “Once they leave the ballpark, you have no idea what they do.”
When you’re covering baseball 99 percent of the time, you ask a question you could predict the answer within a couple of adjectives. Not with Arroyo.
He’d surprise you. And he was a master of breaking down the mental battle between pitcher and batter. It was fascinating.
The day after his 1,000th strikeout, I asked him if he kept the ball.
“Yeah, because it was Albert Pujols after I got behind 3-0,” he said.
That was the essence of Arroyo’s success as a pitcher: He could figure out how to strike out Pujols after falling behind 3-0 with stuff that never lit up the radar gun.
Arroyo was seen as a guitar-playing, long-haired party guy. But he was as serious and as meticulous about training, nutrition and preparation as any player.
“People think he’s a Good Time Charlie,” Dusty Baker used to say. “And he is. But this dude works hard.”
Good Time Charlie is going to Hall of Fame thanks to that hard work.
“It’s something you work for your whole life,” Arroyo told reporters after ther announcement. “You just want to play in the Major Leagues. You have no idea if you’re going to play long enough to leave your mark in any way, shape or form. One of the things you don’t think about as a player a lot of times is sticking with the same team long enough to build up these types of numbers to be in their hall of fame, especially in this day and age, guys bounce around every two to three years with different teams.”
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Priority 1 for Reds: Sign Cueto, no really spend a little get a lot for now and later
I’m back after a long ride on the “What are you going to say about the Reds?” bus.
But about a month and 25 or so losses ago, I thought of one player the Reds could feasibly add to make an impact for 2023 and beyond:
Johnny Cueto.
Forgive me if someone wrote this already. The Reds were not on my later summer reading list. Anyway, I started to write it several times, but apathy, an extended stint on the IL and general procrastination stopped me.
But nothing that happened in that long slog toward 100 losses persuaded me that Cueto was not the guy to pursue. The Reds’ future depends on the development of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft, Diaz, Alexis Diaz et al.
I think they’re in good hands with pitching coach Derek Johnson and his staff. But a coach can only say “throw strikes” so many times.
Cueto is a walking and talking example of how command trumps stuff. He’s a short, chubby right-hander who developed into an ace with guile, a five (or more) pitch arsenal and an ability to put the ball where he wanted.
Greene, Lodolo, and Ashcraft, the No. 1, 2 and 3 starters as projected for ’23, have vastly superior stuff to Cueto. But he put up better numbers than all three while pitching in a pennant race with the White Sox:
Cueto: 3.3 WAR, 158.1 IP, 3.35 ERA, 1.225 WHIP, 15.7 K rate, 5.1 walk rate, 0.85 HR/9.
Greene: 2.2 WAR, 125.2 IP, 4.44 ERA, 1.210 WHIP, 29.5 K rate, 9.0 walk rate, 1.7 HR/9.
Lodolo: 2.7 WAR, 103.1 IP, 3.66 ERA, 1.248 WHIP, 29.7 K rate, 8.8 walk rate, 1.13 HR/9
Ashcraft: 1.3 WAR, 105 IP, 4.89 ERA, 1.419 WHIP, 15.3 K rate, 6.5 walk rate, 0.94 HR/9.
Average fastball: Cueto 91.4, Greene 99.0, Lodolo 94.2, Ashcraft 97.2. You get the point.
Cueto is a risk. He will be 37 on Opening Day. He had Tommy John in 2018 and missed all of ’19, missed. He came back for shortened ’20 season. He went 7-7 with a 4.08 ERA in 2021. Then had the bounce back with Sox after signing late.
Cueto is not an ace anymore. But he is a workhorse. He didn’t make his first start until May 16. He made 23 starts. He went at least six innings in 20 of them and eight or more in three of them.
But the biggest reason to pursue is what he brings off the mound. He is a guy any of the young pitchers can go to for advice. He’s an upbeat, positive influence. He works hard. He can put the ball where he wants.
And he would also be a natural to start Opening Day, eliminating the competition among the Young Guys, which can be bad for spring arms.
About the money: It’s always about he money. Cueto made $4.2 million last year. It will take more than that. The guess here is an early offer of $10 million — $8 million for 2023 plus a $2 million option — gets it done. No guess here: Return on Investment will exceed the Mike Minor deal.
Nick Krall told my buddy Bobby Nightengale the other day that the club is still working on the budget. More from Bobby:
The Reds carried about a $130 million payroll in 2021. It dropped near $110 million this year, according to FanGraphs, and they’ll enter the offseason with under $75 million
The Reds will likely slash further. But there still has to be room for Johnny C, right?
The Reds have 20 investors listed in the media guide. Pony up a half mill or so each, and you’ve got a player who can have a tremendous impact short and long term.
Not to mention the first PR boost since the big signings in 2020.
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John Fay on the Reds 